Expectations were high ahead of the draw for the Champions League quarter-finals with eight European heavy-hitters featuring and it’s fair to say that it delivered four mouthwatering clashes. Here are some quick thoughts on the matchups without looking ahead to the semis.
Atletico Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund
This is an intriguing tie between two teams most observers would have had doubts about getting to this stage considering the fact that both were drawn against domestic league pace-setters in the round of 16. Atletico and Dortmund both just about scraped through after hanging on against Inter and PSV respectively.
They may not have been convincing victors, but this stage now presents both with an opportunity. Atletico haven’t reached the semis of this competition since 2017, at which point they were regular entrants of the final stages with Real Madrid often being the only team that could beat them. Dortmund themselves haven’t made the semis since their fantastic run to the final under Jurgen Klopp in 2013, coincidentally at Wembley, which hosts this year’s final as well.
Why Atletico are likely to win?
History has shown that the knockout rounds in the Champions League don’t exclusively belong to those who play the best football on the day. Diego Simeone’s side in particular are well-versed in winning such games through grit, defensive nous and supreme organization, supplemented by a star each between the posts in Jan Oblak and a bonafide modern legend spearheading the attack in Antoine Griezmann.
Why Dortmund are likely to win?
Atletico have been terrible on their travels this season, which provides hope to Dortmund who host the second leg in front of what remains one of the most intimidating crowds in Europe. Terzic can claim with some merit that his side have been written off at many points this season, including by this writer who thought they would come in last in the group of death only to end up winning it. That spirit and belief alone can sometimes take a side through in knockout football.
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Barcelona
It’s hard not to think of 2017 when thinking of this tie. In a barely believable comeback, Barca overturned a 4-0 deficit to defeat PSG 6-1 on aggregate in a memorable night at the Camp Nou. The repercussions of that game set the ball rolling for a paradigm shift in the transfer market as that chastening defeat prompted PSG to break the record for a signing by paying over 200 million euros for Neymar, who was Barca’s star on the night. How Barca then spent that money has had a big impact on their current financial predicament.
There are not many protagonists from that memorable tie still around, but two prominent ones remain. The first, Sergi Roberto who scored the winning goal that night and then seven years later came on as a sub and contributed a key assist to seal the win against Napoli earlier this week. The other, Luis Enrique, who in a unique twist of fate was the Barcelona manager that night, but now is in the French champion’s dugout.
Why PSG are likely to win?
It is Enrique who might well end up being the key factor in this tie. He has at long last introduced a more measured PSG side in Europe, a team that plays with better tactical balance than its more storied predecessors, emphasizing possession allied with a tireless work rate. Then there is of course, the Kylian Mbappe factor, the French superstar as lethal and game-changing as ever, despite playing a limited role in domestic matters recently. Against a Barca defence that has been exposed time and again in transitions, Mbappe could well make hay flanked by fellow tricky speedsters, Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembele.
Why Barca are likely to win?
In a season where the word turmoil might be an understatement for Xavi’s Barcelona, the only silver lining has come in the shape of La Masia giving the world two new starlets in 16-year old winger Lamine Jamal and 17-year old centre-back Pau Cubarsi, who was man of the match in the second leg against Napoli. It may prove difficult for Xavi to overcome Enrique, who was in fact his manager in his last season as a Barcelona player, when despite having a limited role, the midfield maestro contributed to a magnificent treble in 2015. Perhaps that can serve as some inspiration, coupled with the fact that PSG haven’t beaten Barca in a knockout tie in three attempts in the Champions League in the presence of fans. While that logically shouldn’t be a factor, history does weigh on teams in this competition.
Arsenal vs. Bayern Munich
When Arsenal were regulars in this competition, Pep Guardiola’s Bayern trounced Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal in the round of 16 for two consecutive years. That ended up being a ceiling the Gunners simply couldn’t break through as Wenger’s long reign faded towards its conclusion. But here they are, finally back in the quarterfinals against a Bayern side, who have lost at this stage for three years in a row after a period where making the semis was a rite of passage. Unlike those encounters between Wenger and Pep, it’s hard to see the result being so comprehensive either way this time around.
Why Arsenal are likely to win?
A defence that has conceded the least goals in the competition supplementing a style that is conducive to success in Europe thanks to excellent ball retention and a pressing scheme from Mikel Arteta that rivals the best on the continent. Arsenal’s attack can at times look devoid of ideas against teams with a low block, but that is unlikely to be a tactical hindrance against a Bayern side incapable of implementing such a defensive style. One would also back Arsenal’s prowess on the wing exposing the German champions fullbacks, an area of concern that Thomas Tuchel has struggled to rectify for most of this campaign.
Why Bayern are likely to win?
Despite a troubling campaign, Tuchel remains one of the finest tacticians around and his prowess in this competition in recent years, many times against the odds, just can’t be brushed off. It also helps that despite all their problems, they possess the best forward in the world in Harry Kane, who is in great form and also happens to have an excellent scoring record against Arsenal. Finally, we come again to history in this competition. Leaving aside the fact that Bayern have always beaten Arsenal in the knockouts, the gunners simply haven’t won a tie of magnitude against a big European side since their run to the final in 2006. With the second leg in Munich, the hosts are likely use that pressure against a side, who for all their undoubted excellence, remain a young and inexperienced team at this stage.
Real Madrid vs. Manchester City
The fact that these two are facing off for the third consecutive year does reduce the novelty factor, but that doesn’t mean football lovers aren’t salivating at the prospect of another contest between these two giants. Many crucial components to their recent European success have left, but both Carlo Ancelotti and Pep Guardiola have maintained high standards even as they have dealt with evolution in their sides.
Why Real are likely to win?
Well, for starters, because they are Real. No team has an indelible hold on this competition like the 14-time champions. Carlo Ancelotti’s man management and tactical nous at this stage can never be underestimated as he can change formations and styles on a dime, often adjusting to game state brilliantly. Finally, the x-factor of Vinicius Jr. and Jude Bellingham to come up with moments even when it seems like Real are not in the game is priceless in the knockouts.
Why City are likely to win?
Well, for starters, because they are City. They are the defending champions. And in defeating Real last year, they got a big monkey off their back. They have reached this stage consistently and have got better at managing these occasions, Guardiola increasing their control in such games even if sacrificing a bit in attack. In Erling Harland and Kevin De Bruyne, they have the x-factor to rival that of Real’s. And to conclude, the second leg is at the Etihad where they haven’t lost a knockout tie since 2018.
The Through Ball by Wasim Parkar 